Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Romney as Bush... no, not that one
It occurs to me that the reason Romney may have trouble catching on is that he is a milquetoast, gee-whiz northerner from a rich political family, whose very persona bespeaks a wimpy sort of moderation. In other words, he's like George H. W. Bush. Republicans tried that brand once and found it lacking. They seem much more into fiery New Yorkers, southwestern soldiers, and rural Ozarks preacher-types this campaign season. We'll see how that goes.
Where do we go from here?
First of all, congratulations to Senator McCain on last night's victory in the New Hampshire primary. Considering he was supposed to be DOA a while ago, it was hard for me not to smile as I saw this American patriot make a victory speech. If nothing else, he will always have New Hampshire.
Also, Hillary is still alive and kicking. It was frankly both a baldly political moment and a very humanizing one to see Hillary cry. Is this what propelled her over the top, or were all the polls simply wrong? I don't know... what I do know is, this is one campaign cycle for the ages.
Which brings us back to Governor Huckabee. I know he didn't break too high above the double-digit threshold, but then, no one expected him to in New Hampshire. What's amazing is that he turned out 20,000 voters and got as small a percentage as he did. The independents must really like McCain. (Is this a validation of the surge strategy? I'd like to believe so.)
Frankly, last night's McCain victory may actually be a boost to Huckabee... Romney lost yet again, despite home court advantage, lots of money, and the lead in the polls for months that was yet again blown. Romney has trouble closing the deal; we've seen this twice in two contests so far. Romney is not that electable- he lost his 1994 Senate race to Ted Kennedy and then won one election to be governor. Most pundits predict he would not win again if he ran for re-election. To be fair, this is Massachusetts we're talking about, where Republican voters are outnumbered. Still, in contrast to Gov. Huckabee, Romney seems to have burnt bridges. His electoral inexperience is a liability, whereas Huckabee's experience against Clinton is a definite net plus.
So from here, it's on to Michigan and then South Carolina. Michigan is the X factor; I actually think Huckabee's message could sell very well here. Will he sell it? We'll see. If Romney doesn't win here, he's toast.
South Carolina will be ugly. If Huckabee wins, he's in great stead for Florida. A double win in SC and FL will pretty much make the Gov a sure-shot for the nomination.
Here's an article from the American Spectator, calling the conservative elites on their anti-Huck bias. That's all!
Also, Hillary is still alive and kicking. It was frankly both a baldly political moment and a very humanizing one to see Hillary cry. Is this what propelled her over the top, or were all the polls simply wrong? I don't know... what I do know is, this is one campaign cycle for the ages.
Which brings us back to Governor Huckabee. I know he didn't break too high above the double-digit threshold, but then, no one expected him to in New Hampshire. What's amazing is that he turned out 20,000 voters and got as small a percentage as he did. The independents must really like McCain. (Is this a validation of the surge strategy? I'd like to believe so.)
Frankly, last night's McCain victory may actually be a boost to Huckabee... Romney lost yet again, despite home court advantage, lots of money, and the lead in the polls for months that was yet again blown. Romney has trouble closing the deal; we've seen this twice in two contests so far. Romney is not that electable- he lost his 1994 Senate race to Ted Kennedy and then won one election to be governor. Most pundits predict he would not win again if he ran for re-election. To be fair, this is Massachusetts we're talking about, where Republican voters are outnumbered. Still, in contrast to Gov. Huckabee, Romney seems to have burnt bridges. His electoral inexperience is a liability, whereas Huckabee's experience against Clinton is a definite net plus.
So from here, it's on to Michigan and then South Carolina. Michigan is the X factor; I actually think Huckabee's message could sell very well here. Will he sell it? We'll see. If Romney doesn't win here, he's toast.
South Carolina will be ugly. If Huckabee wins, he's in great stead for Florida. A double win in SC and FL will pretty much make the Gov a sure-shot for the nomination.
Here's an article from the American Spectator, calling the conservative elites on their anti-Huck bias. That's all!
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Post-Iowa...
Well, Gov. Huckabee obviously succeeded in doing what all Mitt's money never could: persuading people to vote for him.
How will New Hampshire go? I predict 14-20% of the vote will be Governor Huckabee's.
The debates this weekend didn't help Mike much, I don't reckon. (Though they may have helped Fred Thompson).
But onward he goes. Also, congrats to Barack Obama. I didn't think he'd make it a victory over Hillary so quickly. Watch for him to mop the floor with Hillary tonight in NH, and then go on and win in SC. (He's not eligible in MI).
For anyone interested in learning more about Obama, I found this informative.
There's a great post by a fellow blogger for Huckabee about what true conservatism is, and a lively philosophical discussion followed...
And I dunno, it might just be coincidence or an instance of a man who likes to see himself on TV, but this bearded guy who decided during Sunday's debate that he liked Romney has been used in a focus group... by the same pollster... in the same election season! Interesting, at least... though there's no proof that this is anything more than that... but would anyone put it past Governor Willard to get one (or more) of his own into that room to try and sway viewers? Because unless Romney wins decisively in NH tonight, there is no way that room was representative. Interesting, if nothing else...
Paid Romneybots, please refrain from wasting your time by making outlandish claims about comparing your party's base to Hitler-era Germans, it really isn't flattering for anyone involved, not to mention recklessly untrue.
How will New Hampshire go? I predict 14-20% of the vote will be Governor Huckabee's.
The debates this weekend didn't help Mike much, I don't reckon. (Though they may have helped Fred Thompson).
But onward he goes. Also, congrats to Barack Obama. I didn't think he'd make it a victory over Hillary so quickly. Watch for him to mop the floor with Hillary tonight in NH, and then go on and win in SC. (He's not eligible in MI).
For anyone interested in learning more about Obama, I found this informative.
There's a great post by a fellow blogger for Huckabee about what true conservatism is, and a lively philosophical discussion followed...
And I dunno, it might just be coincidence or an instance of a man who likes to see himself on TV, but this bearded guy who decided during Sunday's debate that he liked Romney has been used in a focus group... by the same pollster... in the same election season! Interesting, at least... though there's no proof that this is anything more than that... but would anyone put it past Governor Willard to get one (or more) of his own into that room to try and sway viewers? Because unless Romney wins decisively in NH tonight, there is no way that room was representative. Interesting, if nothing else...
Paid Romneybots, please refrain from wasting your time by making outlandish claims about comparing your party's base to Hitler-era Germans, it really isn't flattering for anyone involved, not to mention recklessly untrue.
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